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Significant Weather

Will give a detailed outlook plus a map displaying where severe weather will be a possibility.
Our outlook maps go out to 7 days in advance.
For day's 1-3 a more in depth forecast will be given as we show where the highest chances are that someone may see tornado, large hail, and/or damaging winds.
For day's 4-7 we will display a short discussion to give a heads up on any potential severe weather, with a map pin-pointing the area of greatest concern.
Our categorical maps will be color coded.
Map one will display where severe weather is possible. All locations will be enclosed by either a brown circle, minimal severe weather, a green circle, slight severe weather event, a red circle, significant severe weather outbreak, and/or a black circle, dangerous severe weather outbreak.
Minimal risk: Probability of seeing at least some form of severe weather
- Green-5% chance
Slight risk: Probability of you seeing some form of severe weather
- Orange-10% chance
- Red-20% chance
Significant severe weather: Probability of you seeing at least one form of severe weather.
- Blue-25% chance
- Pink-40% chance
Dangerous severe weather outbreak: Probability of you seeing multiple severe weather events
- Black-60% chance
The next maps will display 3 catagories for the threat for tornados, large hail, and damaging winds.

Slight risk: Probability of 10 or more tornados within the colored circle.
- Green-2% chance
- Orange-5% chance
Significant severe: Probability of 15 or more tornados with at least 3 strong or 1 violent tornado.
- Red-10% chance
- Blue-15% chance
Dangerous severe weather outbreak: Probability of at least 15 tornados, or multiple long-tracking violent tornados.
- Pink-30% chance
- Black-60% chance

Minimal severe weather: Probability of at least 5 severe hail reports.
- Green-5% chance
Slight risk: Probability of at least 10 severe hail reports with max hail size of 1 1/2" expected.
- Orange-15% chance
- Red-20% chance
Significant severe: Probability of at least 15 severe hail reports with max hail size of 2-3" expected
- Blue- 30% chance
Dangerous severe weather alert: Probability of at least 20 or more severe hail reports and hail the size of baseballs can be expected.
- Pink- 45% chance
- Black-60% chance

These maps are color coded with the following percents for damaging winds:

Minimal severe weather: Probability of at least 5 severe wind reports.
- Green-5% chance
Slight risk: Probability of at least 10 severe wind reports with max winds of 50-60 mph expected.
- Orange-15% chance
- Red-20% chance
Significant severe: Probability of at least 15 severe wind reports with max winds up to 65 mph expected
- Blue- 30% chance
Dangerous severe weather alert: Probability of at least 20 or more severe wind reports and winds of an excessive of 70 mph can be expected.
- Pink- 45% chance
- Black-60% chance

The severe weather page is updated twice a day. The times are as followed: 8:30-9:30 am, 0Z and 6Z model runs will be used. 4:30-6:00 pm a final outlook will be issued. Times are subject to change, especially during a potential major severe weather outbreak, where the page may be updated up to 4 times a day.

A winter weather alert will be issued when significant accumulations of snow is expected (where significant amounts are not known to occur to often; such as, the southeast receiving 6+ inches). Or for blizzard conditions and ice storms.
A detailed map with accumulation predictions, and a forecast will be issued for each major winter weather event.

All forecasts and outlooks will be used from the National Hurricane Center, nhc.noaa.gov. It will include projected path, current satellite imagery, and an detailed forecast.

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